Bye bye 2008

In this year 2008, equity market really made a disappointed result to everyone. But this is a good lesson to holder.

Like: -
1) Company can bankruptcy although they had survived more than 100 years.
2) Equity market shares drop more than 80% although is a famous company in the world.
3) Government use the new debt rescue the luxury and branded company although they been nearest to bankrupt.

The new things/policies will continue in year 2009. But, when is a last day of bottom touch. I believed this is a biggest cruel game in year 2009.

Anyhow, wish you are have a "Happy and Healthy New Year"

1.2 million

Our country can maintain the GDP because of: -
a) Government maintain employed about 1.2 million labour
b) GLC company still maintain the existing labour
c) Retirement labour from government contributed about 6.5 billion per annum.

The biggest contribution of government department’s servant to the internal demand could be maintained the GDP as positive level. If per labour earn RM1, 000 per month, the total salary per month pay to government servant are amounting to RM1.2 billion and one year about RM14.4 billion. It did not include the benefits like, medical, accommodations, allowances and retirement benefit. This necessary expenditure highly supported our internal demand at certain level. Hence, current economic crisis in the world seems like never landing our country.

The high ratio of employment rate on government servant in the Asia day by day eating our nation wealth and resources. Subsequently, increased of nation budget to maintain such cost by way of borrow. Our generation would not suffer short of resources but the next generation could bear all the resposible and debts in the coming 50 years.

I wish some intelligent people can give some good idea to solve the above matter and provide a better vision and future to next generation of Malaysian.

Shares - 你怎么舍得我难过

Buying shares like this song (你怎么舍得我难过). We are holding you day by day, month by month. But, you are planning to di-listing. Some how we are spend all our saving to buy you but you brings a disappointing to us.

"最爱你的人是我
你怎么舍得我难过
在我最需要你的时候
没有说一句话就走"

"You are our beloved,
Why you dare to allow us sad,
While the time I really need you,
You just go away plus never leave a single word for us"

Quite day

Today when you are sat in front of the trading room, You may feel bore. The funds manager monitoring the portfolio at certain range. They still hoping the shares closed higher at year ended could brought them in year 2009 better.

The economic fundamental totally spoilt it in 3 months ago. So, technical player will only enjoy this game in the coming next 5 months.

So, keep watching the movement of day trading will brings you more stressful. Take a good trip to enjoy life is much more important than day trading.

Rest is good strategy

KLSE remains 2 trading days in 2008. So, any buying does not help you and me gain anything. Fund manger busy on restructure their portfolio.

This is a bad year for every fund manager, No bonus or maybe already received a letter to stop employment.

Most of the Asia pacific countries' people still realise this bad things, but it will coming soon. However, life is going on. Please do not give up.

Bad News at USA

One of the Fund Manager found commits suicide because of invest into Bernie Madoff's funds. He lost about US$1.4 billion. The CNBC news: -

"The founder of an investment fund that lost $1.4 billion with Bernard Madoff was discovered dead Tuesday after committing suicide at his Madison Avenue office, marking a grim turn in a scandal that has left investors around the world in financial ruin.
Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet was found sitting at his desk at about 8 a.m. with both wrists slashed, New York Police Department spokesman Paul Browne said. A box cutter was found on the floor along with a bottle of sleeping pills.
De la Villehuchet, 65, was pronounced dead at 8 a.m. local time at a Madison Avenue building in midtown Manhattan, New York City Medical Examiner spokeswoman Ellen Borakove said. He was co-founder of money manager Access International. "
Results of an autopsy are not expected to be available until late Wednesday morning. No suicide note was found.

I Am Correct

As per yesterday projected, the KLSE index performance badly in today. The volume of traded reduce substantially plus top volume counter tried hit the support level again. Hence, after analyst the performance of KLSE in past few days, I am here suggest the support level will stand at 854 points and year end closing should stand at around 864 points.

This is not so bad for this 3 months (Oct 08 to Dec 08) when compared with others country’s equity market. It was never broke the 800 points again and successful given the “800 points’” buyer some gain. So, I am here identified the “800 points” is strong support level for KLSE. This is a good guidance to those Technical Analyst player. In my own opinion, if broke the above said strong support level. KLSE equity market would be adjusted another 20% lower from 800. This is a bad news and hope that will not be happen in year 2009.

Of course, this year is a bad year for fundamental player. But I am not worry, because this category player always proud to say that their investment portfolio is plan for 3 years or 5 years.

At last, if you had taken profit on today. TA player (technical analyst player) should consider “Quit trading in coming 10 days.”

Good Trader should aware opportunity always is there as well as you are “Ready”. Stay away from these game a while because you need to relax you stressful mind. I am not encourage a player involving into these game day by day, because we do not own a power to forecast 100% accuracy on every buying or selling.

The up rally is over

KLSE index today morning had hit higher and touched 887 points in the morning shift but the profit taking activities prevented it and at last closed at 874. In my opinion, KLSE index will not hit higher than 887 point for year end. Because of: -

a) Palm oil price and crude oil price would be adjusted heavily in this coming days.
b) MRCB and Gamuda resistance price stand at 76 cents and RM1.91 respectively.
c) The heavy adjustment will be happen again in the Euro country and Hong Kong equity market.

The above factors going to join up together soon. This is bad news and bad effect to the entire world market. Hence, I am here to suggest take profit at equity market immediately and sell “Short” again in the Future market.

The Rally Run Remain

Yesterday, market hit low due to oversea performance weak. But it did not affected the base of the up trend.

IOICorp closed at above 3.54 and AASIA hit higher closed. I am still preferring buy in for short term investment but caution on watching the IOICORP movement in the coming few days.

KLSE still enjoying the up move because of :-

a) Lower interest imposed by Japan, HK and USA
b) Higher exchange rate against USD

But, it would not stood at higher than 890 points because crude oil and palm oil price registered lower. This 2 commodities demand continue bad indirectly bring its offer price hit the history low. Hence KLSE index will not perform better than what we expect.

A good Rally (KLSE)

KLSE equity market today performance very well. In this morning, I had recommended to my friend bought in IOIcorp-CJ and Aasia for short term investment.

I am believe tomorrow market will give you another surprise although it may affected by external market is bad, especially IOIcorp and AASia will continue given you a small gain.

Ramunia also closed at better level at 35.5 cents, if tomorow it break 37.5 cents. The resistance level for this counter is 42.5 cents.

Overall market index will move at 860 points to 895 points. If you wants to play future index, please take this as you guide. But always remember, lose money do not blame me at here.

Fatique

Every one will feel fatique while he had faced: -

a) Spend more earn less
b) Investment more gain lose.
c) Work more paid less.

In the investment of shares game, people would applied various theory to understand it but finally found that lose direction. Especially most of the equity you had bought declared profit decline as well as reduce payment of dividend.

But I am 100% respect our local fund which is managed by PNB, although market is bad, they still managed to pay higher dividend. Malaysia Government should transfer those manager to manage our GLC company. But I never see anyone get promote to such company. Very funny and interesting ????

Why KWSP did not employed PNB funds manager to help ordinary people to earn extra? Is it a funny and interesting question????

What i am understand is KWSP could paid higher salary better than private sector plus eligible pay more than 6 months bonus to employee. Why they cannot employed such high skill fund manager from PNB? Why???

A lot of questions brings me feel "Fatique".

Internet Connection Problem

I think a lot of people wondering how come this few days never update my blog. In my area there, the telekom streamyx had problem on connection.

Tell you are a joke, initially i thought is my modem or ethernet card problem. So, advise by Telekom purchase a new equipment but finally they said is their problem. They wasted 3 days then only allowed me report faulty. This is so called efficiency for GLC company at Malaysia.

On the same time, the media highlighted that TMI going to privatised the company. That is impossible deal, they had faced the problem on debts and cash liquitity only listed TMI. Now i believed that is only certain securities use own imigination to talk about this proposal. Why?

Maybe they had advise some powerful people accumulating this shares during the listed day and also maybe this shares hit to RM5.00, they have been recommended to someone.

I do not know my prediction is correct or not but the media wrote such article/report has indirectly given a wrong direction to public investors. At last, i just wanna to said "That is impossible deal".

They are not eligible to receive Any Salary

Lehman Brothers CEO, AIG CEO and 3 auto mobile CEO, they should not eligible any salary from now. Not even USD 1.00. By right, the whole family of them should provide a free employment to the above company at least 5 generation in their family.

As an ordinary people or employee, the yearly income is about USD50k. So, when the above said CEO enjoying the high income in year 2006 & 2007. It could be paid per person above USD50 million yearly. Hence, they had received the money more than 50 year extra times than one ordinary employee. But they have been brought the company faced the bankruptcy as well as asked for the bailout from taxpayer's money.

In order to penalised them, their entire family should provide free service to the above company. My opinion is, every bailout plan should provide a clause to enforce EX-CEO be a free pay employment in the specific company. Otherwise, they are still enjoying the good benefit, if the bailout plan finally suceed rescue the company.

Do you agree my proposal?

Ha Ha

Small Up Rally is over

After analyst the Hong Kong index, I was found that the small rally on this period is over. As per my own indicator, after Hang Seng index broke 13,200. It can be touched 15,800 represented about 2,600 points or almost 20% rally. It was confirmed that on yesterday transaction on Hong Kong market. The entire Asia Pacific equity market follows their step and also registered a small up run in the last few days.

KLSE also follow the step of Hong Kong market at Wednesday and Thursday in this week. Of course, it was brought some shares provided small or litter margin for day trader. In this month, Technical analyst player gain the advantages on short period of trading but it would not attracted any long-term investor step into market to create a strong base at equity market. Hence, the overall performance of equity market still remain is weak.

So, as an investors please remember:-

“Quite does not means the economic recession is over. Up move in certain period of time would not mean that the bear was gone.”

Time is Money

"Sometime you feel regret because you was forgot to capture a good opportunity to step in the game in advance."

"Sometime you feel regret because you are playing in the game but forgot to interview a new job."

Same as above in you circular of life, you would faced a lot of uncertainty and unfortunately. As well as in the equity market, you are always searching a lower price to buy and higher price to sell. Every minute the transaction is going on, if you missed it. You would regret forever.

Let me give a example if you are investing in Malaysia equity market may occurred you lose the golden opportunity in investment.

A foreign investors come in to Malaysia to invest, he need to apply approval from Bank Negara. Same as if he wants to go out Malaysia, also need a approval. Hence, if Malaysia equity market had a PE ratio same as others development country, It would not bring any advantages.Because development country adopted a policy for equity market with "no currency control "and "better financial servicing."

A good trader or investors prefer a free float currency market to manipulate the funds to enjoy the high yield. Every second or every minute for them is important. They had to well know this theory in their dictionary ie " Time is Money".

If Malaysia equity market wants to attract more investor, we need some changes in our policy, otherwise although the PE ratio is same as others, investors may prefer other market in advance.

ICELAND Market Plunge

At Tuesday ICELAND time 16.40, the equity market of ICELAND recorded plunge about 40.17%, and it represented down about 265.17 points and closed at 394.88. This is terrible history and shock result.

But seem like others EURO development country (DAX CAC and FTSE) did not affected and still maintain steady. But market plunge at one country's equity market situated at Euro had given a bad signal and confirmed that economic base at Euro has been totally destroyed.

So, I am hereby classify this rally at Euro country will be ended soon. The rebound is bear run rebound, could not stand more than 5 to 10 days. Another plunge will be coming again in the entire world equity market.

Bad Day for Genting group

Resort hit the 2 years low at RM2.14 closed. Genting also going to test its lower price of RM3.58 again. A lot of people in doubt what is happening on this group?

In fact, if apply the PE ratio, most of the Blue chip at KLSE are expensive if we compared with others regional market's equity share. Furthermore, our country financial services not that good. Because every outflow and inflow strictly control by our bank negara. So, if both market had a same PE or fundamental value, Foreign investors will not consider invest at here. Because, "time is money".

Hong Kong break the 15,000 points at yesterday because of China forex side effects. Because the saving looking some way to parking their funds in order to maintain the better yield to against the inflation rate.

So, KLSE step in to dangerous level at this week if Genting berhad break the strong support at 3.58. This is a good guidance and alert to holders of blue chip. Please be careful and take the necessary step to minimise you lose on you stock in hand.

DJ up 299

Yesterday, the entire world equity market surged about 3% to 9%. DJ up due to obama plans. Asia market due to: -

1) Lower interest
2) Oil and energy price slump

Equity market already up 4 days, seem the financial crisis already searching the base to landing. But economic fears will be continue in coming next three month.

Malaysia does not gain from that, because oil palm and crude oil price affected our National Revenue income. So, there is not any big jump on our market in these week.

Good opening at Asia Pacific

Hong Kong and Japan recorded a positive opening at today due to bailout of 3 big motor corporation gone through at USA at about USD16 billion.

The rescue plan accepted by leader but still waiting the lawmaker to approve it. The reply positive by Asia Pacific's equity market highlighted confident on US government policy.

Would it be follow by Malaysia KLSE?

DJ up 259

Although USA rose the unemployed rate to above 7% but it does not hit down DJ index. The fundamental player lose the basic of trading in this period of time. The technical player (TA) won this round.

Equity market comprising a lot of difference type of player, especially like those country has policy with open system. Hong Kong, Tokyo, UK and USA all applying this policy on their financial system. Hence, you are also could see if any major changes on the trend of economic, they are always leading advance when compared with others.

Please do not mislead by DJ index move up in the last three day trading, because it does not show any good or major changes on fundamental economic as well as the black hole of financial problem still maintain in the market.

Another Bad Day

Today, TMI price done in the range of 3.04 to 3.20. On that day, based on my own calculation, it should be hit below 3.00 but it successfully support.

So, is it TMI would be continues hit lower in the coming next day? My answer is “Yes”. Today, after analyst the overall movement of KLSE, I was noted another KLSE index counter Genting Berhad also soon be challenge the strong support price at 3.58.

The individual counter break the strong support does not bring any bad impact to overall performance, but if few counter of index member did the same move and broke the strong support. It is seems like market index going to search the new lower support.

If Genting, Sime , TM and TMI all in the coming days break the support. I am here to predict again, KLSE index will hit lower than 800 points soon.

Bad news at KLSE

Today at 4.15pm, TMI Berhad one of the member from Composite Index of KLSE broke belowRM3.54. This support level already stood about 2months, recently although KLSE have been touched 800 points but TMI did not hit below RM3.54. So, I usually take these as strong support level. Unfortunately, today it had broke this level and I am make a assumption it would be brought the followings effect: -

a) Hit another 20% low from RM3.54 in the next few days.
b) No new support level can define.

TMI represented about 3.16% ratio on KLSE index, so for every 1 cents low would bring index drop about 0.0962. If heavy adjustment on this counter, It will be brings another panic selling to hit other index members.

Based on the above, I am here highly recommend doing a “Short” position at KLSE future for DEC 08 and Jan 09.

Retail Bank, Investment Bank and Bursa

In my blog, you are seldom see I am recommend these 3 category of stocks. Because I really had owned a very bad experience in their services as well as their stupid policy.

Khoo88, please forgive me, I am here indirectly criticised your employer.

Today, these three type finance sectors giving me another stupid experience.

First incident is, "Our company had submit the changed of signatories in past 5 months ago. Today I was found that until now, they still haven't update. When you are make a phone call to confirmed, Investment bank said they have been submitted, but Bursa's officer denied had receive such instruction to amend it accordingly.

This is very funny. Finally, as a client I must be a middlerman to guide them what to do. Investment bank collect brokerage from us and bursa collect clearing fees from us. Why we should do they job? Furthermore I am always listen someone telling Bursa had a efficiency and capable staff , so they always award to staff about 6 to 12 months bonus annually. In addition, When you are reading the Bursa report, the capital expenditure cost million plus million. But finally you are aware they are not doing any online updating with investment bank in the country.

Let us make some assumption at here, if one day some one do a transfer because of court order. But because of above two party never do the necessary job, and due to this delay cause/created the difference price range on investment, Who shall hold the responsible?

2nd incident, Bank set stupid policy to stop people buying thier services.

A bank stop people buy oversea bank draft by cash. Why? if you are planning to help you friend at oversea to lend him some money by way of purchase a bank draft form bank and sent it to your friend at oversea. Please ask you friend fly back immediately signing the application form in advance, otherwise bank will reject the application because this is thier bank policy. Alternatively they may also request you must prove that you frined passport in front of them. Why I am said that?

Today, a company need to fulfil a payment to singapore authority and it cost less than 100 . Because the problem on floating currency rate, if employee follow the normal procedure. Directors must standby in front at bank to do it. Due to that, employee plans to use individual name and petty cash to purcahse a bank draft because it only cost less than 100 dollar. It would help company directors can concentrate to do thier big business or attend an important meeting.

But these stupid Bank was insisted that signature of directors compulsory in the application form. The employee use personally money and own initiative helping employer to settle the problem immediately but finally still need to obtain the boss approval. It is similar like a doctor wants to rescue an accident patient on the roadside but must go back to hospital searching a approval from Director General of hospital. If you are one of them, do you think it's logic procedure?

After you have read the above, you must be thinking I am cheated you are, but this is my own exprience and was happen that on today.

So, do you wants me recommended the above counter to you. My answer is "NO".

Because in my investment principle, "if one corporation had owned a lot of good assets and holding a good business activities but with a culture like stupid management theory or with stupid policy inside the corporation"
I would not and never advise any one of my frined holding such company's share.

Staff Cost

Do you know how to calculate a cost per employee?

Today, in the employment market people aim have high pay salary to maintain the life style. During the good economic environment time, people requirement easy to fulfil. If economic going on adverse, these basic requirement would brings bad effect. Finally, the unemployment cases increased and a lot of news about retrenchment.

Why every corporation takes retrenchment staff is the main agenda in the restructuring plan? Because,

“If a staff receive pay is 1,000 per month and bank interest rate is at 3%p.a. Its assume that the staff opportunity cost is about 330,000 per month.”

Base on the above, if company employed 30 employee at averaging salary per month of 1,000 per person, it was indirectly required about placement of Fixed deposit of 9,9 million to earn the interest income to support the 30 employees' monthly salary.

Of course, during at good economic period of time. The 9.9 million capital could help corporate earn a lot of money from business activities. But in the recession time, no business and just paying staff cost is burden. Hence, Company always considers the staff cost is main agenda to approach it in their restructuring plan.

Bad Monday

Black Monday because of "Black Friday". In USA, last week last Friday on November named as " Black Friday".

This is a opening day of shopping for celebrating of Christmas day. All shopping centre or outlet's turnover depend on this season.

But, after the day USA and Malaysia market present a bloody data to hit people again. No much to say at here. Stay out immediately to watch the down or slump show again.

Telergy

A lot of people wish own telergy skill and use it to connect with something. This skill could help individual had an advantage to understand the future stuff in advance. That is not magic, maybe can classify it as "six sense".

I as an ordinary human, dream to have this skill on my investment strategy and hope that can help me earn some extra income. But, actually just a dream only. In fact, in Equity Market 's history these person did not appear yet.

Some time a people/person use in hand data telling public about the future economic fundamental. it does not means his own a telergy skill to liase with equity market. So, if any one said he was owned a telergy skill, please be careful.

Today, future market provide a good earning to "short" player. Because the Sime Darby shares price plunge about 13 to 15%. It had indirectly made spot market move down substantially.

I am projected the down move will be continue at tomorrow.

Always remember, telergy or six sense do not suitable apply at equity market.

Third Quater Results

In order of build up investment portfolio, usually required a substantial result to support. While economic fundamental hit by crisis, that earning for corporation become uncountable. This is why I was mentioned at here, no forecast on lower price of index counter. To identify the value of them, it would need another quarter result to analyst. Therefore, I am always advice next six months only can build up the new portfolio of investments.

Yesterday and today, the results announced by Resort and Genting registered declined. Although the impact of economic crisis derived from abroad but internal economic based seems was followed the down move impact.

The above results highlighted there is no one corporation could escape from the crisis. Of course, there is not easy to maintain the previous results but investors were definitely felt disappointed on it.

I am maintain the "short" strategy on KLSE Future although i was need to pay extra money to maintain the said margin. But i am believe that would not disappointed me in the coming 10 days from now.

Future Market

Future market closed at premium when compared with spot market. There are 2 reasons: -

a) Roll over by long player for November contract to Dec contract.
b) Assume that overall oversea market soon recover.

The above situation had happen normal in the past 3 months. Everytime a new bailout proposed by one country, equity market seem like going to move back uptrend. But, actual result always disappointed.

I had several time mentioned at here, one factor does not help the equity market soon change the current direction. Equity market change the direction have to support by few factors join up together. The proposal only help market go back to middle of the road or overhaul the economic engine to "restart" again.

Good Monday at EURO

Usually while market slump at Monday, we are classify it as Black Monday. But today UK FTSE 100 at 2.30pm soar about 7.69% or 290 points. It was brought the entire Euro equity market outstanding performance.

After US DJ open, the good news delivered from MSN.COM: -

"Stocks rise again after the US government steps in to save the troubled bank. A report on existing-home sales is better than expected. President-elect Obama announces plans for a huge economic stimulus package. Democrats leave it up to the Big 3 automakers to come up with a bailout plan; GM reportedly considers bankruptcy."

Other media like CNBC also detailed the" bailout of government's plan" about the rescue of Citigroup. It was a good news to Financial Institution Sector. Highlighted US Government would not allow any big bank step into bankruptcy. Hence, after 45 minutes of trading, the DJ shut up about 3.87% or 311 points.

By the way, there is another surprising news. Gold price hit USD822. There is a funny move because normally while market up, gold price will not follow. Why this time so funny?

Latest news
Russia closed at up 7.74%.

Selling force at KLSE

KLSE index today closed at 855 points. When compared with 1st shift of closing, it was increased another 2 points lower. It is indirect given a warning to investors, tomorrow it could be hit lower again.

Actuall, if you had read the report about USA financial crisis. You should aware the hole of outstanding loan amounted to 45 trllion, It was represented about 2.5 times of yearly GDP of USA.

USA's Bank created MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) for sub prime loan. Investment Bank created CDO(Coliateralised Debt Obligations), CDS (Credit Default Swap) and Sythetic CDO (CDO plus CDS) to accumulated the funds for leverage loan about 20 to 30 times. Hence small amount of 500 billion(sub prime) roll over it as bigger as 45 trillion outstanding loan in the market.

Based on the above data, I am here to say actually in this period of time, I am disagree invest inividual equity in the market. Unless, the said outstanding had been absorbed.

In this period of time, I am ensure my "Short" future contract maintain until spot market touch or close to 830 points.

DJ up 494 points

DJ up 494 points could help Tokyo Nikkie and HK Hang Seng surge in the coming Monday. But how far it can be go? Malaysia market index at this week had broke the support of 860 points but successful covered back at above 860. How far it can go?

I noted that about 11.30am, the penny stock had a small rally from the day low. But How many people can earn money from that?

If you are asking me what is my opinion on coming next week on KLSE index.?I would still remain my last 2 day strategy. Sell Dec future and ignore buying any stock from equity market. Because i still insist that after broke 859 points, market should search another confiden support level to build up another small rally.

KLSE market must provide me more data to allow me change my above opinion. Otherwise, I will continue sell future index at this level.

I do not like to guess the daily move because i do not wants to take over GOD's task and his duty.

Tonight DJ!!!

Is it any strong rebound at DJ at tonight? After broke the 8,000 points, usually market seeking the 1st support about 20% lower from 8,000, i.e. about 1,600 point adjustment. Hence, I was projected that DJ will touch 6,400 points or below only can rebound.

A lot of investors assume that after 2 days adjustment, it should have a technical rebound. Because in this year had happen few times. But, I am here to given a warning, DJ market could be continue has a adjustment at tonight. Because equity market up or down can not measure by formula or mathematics instrument. If the strong support break, it is mean the confident was lost. It will search another group of confidant to make a new defend line.

Lets me give you are a few example to support the above theory.

a) Recently MRCB touch higher price at 89 cents, after broke my first support price at 79 cents. Today it was hit as low as 62 cents; that is about 17 cents or 20% lower of 79 cents.
b) Zelan was broke RM1 and today hit as low as 80 cents, that is about 20 cents or 20% lower of RM1.

But it is a new defending line for MRCB and Zelan. I do not know yet. Because it also can adjust it more than 90% if the said company internally had own bad news. So, usually I will advise stay away from that. The reasons are: -

1) Profit Margin limited.
2) Every level hidden a lot of holder want to release the holding.
3) Bad news will continue appear on this particular share.

The above is my experience.

Malaysia Market Bad Performing

Why this morning I was decided cut loss, because of:-

a) Gamuda hit down below 1.55 at this morning. Although there were a rebound during transaction but technically broke had been shown this stock up trend move become negative.

b) IOI broke 3.00 at opening

c) PBBank and PBBank-01 shown weak.

d) Zelan seeking the first support at 80cents.

e) Yesterday good effects in the market had changed.

And the main reason is, I must control the loss not more than 25 points per contract. This is my own rule and guidance. Similar system I had been applied on equity market, I am always set the loss margin for below RM1 shares should not more than 3 cents. I am strictly follow this guide to minimise the loss.

In my opinion, current status on equity market are: -

a) Although DJ rebound on tonight but Malaysia equity market could not follow because in the currency market USDollar against RM strong. It will give another reason for blue chip stock make another adjustment.

b) Oil Palm and Crude oil price would drop further because of recession fear.

Refer this week transaction done by me, you are should awared that I was make the correct decision on last weekend but lost the patient of wait.

This is an another good lesson in my life of investments. I hereby wish I would not repeat this mistake again in the future.

Cut Loss

As yesterday mentioned, if Dec future index broke 854. The "Long" position would take immediate action to cut loss. The bad situation maily due to USA DJ broke 8000 points. There is not a bigger adjustment but technically broke the support level of 8000 points bring fear and panic to entire Asia equity market followed the down step.

I had been turn to "sell" position and waiting the spot market break 860 points of KLSE composite index. If really break the said support, I will further sell another contract to enjoy more profit because the 829 points would reach anytime from after breaking the said support.

Closed "Short" at KLSE Index Future

Today i was succeed closed the deal with little gain. The cruelty game make investors panic in trading. That is not easy to closed it at today because the heavy adjustment had only happen in the 4.30pm for KLSE index future.

In my opinion, all penny stocks could not delivered any profit and stability cause our market lose the 880 points. But is that a good reason for index follow the step? A lot of investors plans to hit down the future at last minute because they assume USA market tonight would hit down/slump again. The excuse based on Future DJ currently hit low as 120 points.

Actually, my strategy in this afternoon was buy "long" for Dec future contract. I had been done at 867 and 865 points.

But, I had plan if the DEC future hit below 854 points. I will immediately cut lose. My reasons are:-
a) No any bad news in the market
b) KLSE would not 100% follow the trend of USA DJ.
c) Hong Kong market would not seeking lower support at this morning
d) China market rebound strong at this morning.
e) Pemodalan Nasional Berhad will close book for financial year ended for this month.
f) Gamuda never break the 1.55 after breaking the 1st support of 1.74 and 2nd support of 1.68.

Tomorrow i will take Profit

After analyst today market trend, I found that few index link counter did not give up the support level. It were brought my "Short" position sat on the dangerous level. So, I have decide tomorrow close the deal to enjoy the profit or minimise the lose.

Let me analyst some data for you are understand why I need to do that: -

a) Yesterday and today, I found that Gamuda hit 1.68 per share but did not broke this level. Especially this morning touch one time at 1.68 during market index touched lower. Afternoon hit another time again at 1.68 but also never broke this level although during that time was index lower than morning session plus had another more bad news from oversea market, that was all closed off low.

b) MRCB touch 70 and bound back to 72 cents at market closed.
c) Scomi also hit back to 40.5 cents at market closed.

d) IOI did not search any lower support at entire transaction, although palm oil future traded at lower.

Based on the above, I am assume that market soon be recover. So, any short position on KLSE index would taken a high risk. I am always rely on "in hand data" to decide the next move. This time I also apply the same theory.

Wrong Prediction

Market index did not adjusted heavily as my prediction per last Saturday. But last few days that high volume stock has been registered at off low closed, i.e. KNM, MRCB, Scomi and LionInd. So, if you are a trader on those stocks. Will it be face sell force continue on next day? If referring to my own dedicated support level, I would say it could be continue searching the new support level. That is mean that the above said stock still can not given you any profit if you are done the purchase on today.

Index support by blue chip due to abroad countries’ equity market did not given any direction to follow. But, it automatically accumulated more bad factors together. If any bad news through inside the market. It will be heavily impact market to search another lower support because currently entire world equity markets actually standing at teeter base.

I am still insisting hold the “short” position on future index of KLSE, unless more realistic data given me a signal, market has a support level. Otherwise, I would only close the contract if the said contract expired on last day of November or done at 830 points in the coming trading day.

Waste Money

Every time your are buying a stock for long term investment. If the stock fall down more than 20%, do you feel disappointed?

Every time your are buying a stock for short term investment but immediately given you a 10% return and your are never taking the profit and next day fall down to you buying price, do you feel disappointed?

The above 2 cases almost everyday repeat at equity market and derivative market. Do you want be same as above?

Waste money equivelent to waste life opportunity. The more you had wasted means you life opportunity become less and less...........

Grap the golden opportunity while you are ready, instead of everyday sitting there think or imagine of you could graped the day low and day high price on every purchase or sell.

Trying to well know the move of daily trend given you would hold the positive position. Unless you are sitting in front of display screen of equity market just dreaming.

Please do not waste you in hand bullet when you are uncertain.

Market Heavy Adjustment (Monday)

I am here predict equity market heavy adjustment in the coming Monday. Because of: -

a) Heavy Force Selling on Penny stock.
b) DJ plunge 338 points due to retail sales drop
c) Indonesia currency control

The G20 meeting today would not give any good incentive to our country. That is mainly to restructure the related countries adjust the financial system in order to minimise the risk expand to hit again to teetering others industrial.

THE ABOVE MEETING DOES NOT GIVE Malaysia equity market gain any advantages. oOf course, our financial system did not applied any bad system as USA, but our currency registered weak and less demand in this period due to commodities market been hit as low as we wouldn't expected. Hence, the currency drop heavily against with US Dollar indirectly brought our overseas' debts increased substantially. So, Good slowly turn into Bad.

The above 3 reasons join up as "Bad Factor" would bring Monday or followings week equity market challenge lower points of KLSE index.

As Thursday build up the "short position" on KLSE index future. Maybe could bring me a good profit margin. Although yesterday I was compulsory paid extra money/deposit to top up and maintain the said margin.

Is it a good day for me and bad day for equity market holders/investors.?The answer will out soon in the coming 48 hours from now. Please remember, "how low on equity market should not be a big problem but preparing in advance to face economic depression/recession is your main task in the coming season/year."

Monitor the pulse of economic closely give you an advantages to face any major changes in yours life. Good luck and Good weekend!

My Decision, My Character

While people read my blog, some time they were in doubt. How and where I had obtained the guide to decide on my buying or selling.

Actually my decision on such is not important for others people because that said decision has been attached with my style. It would not suitable for others. Investors should choose an own style to build up the own investment portfolio.

Some people would like to enjoy dividend, some people would like to enjoy capital gain. Some people would like to buy in volume and some people would like to enjoy more than 10% gain per shares by limited volume.

Difference style and character on individually were affected a person apply differ way/method to handler on his own investment.

I am glad reader continues support my article but please do not try to apply the same method as me. Because every decision I was made actually has been refer/study or has been joined up a lot of issue/reasons. During the period, if any major changes happen on every issue, it would bring me take immediate action change the direction of investment.

Build up Short on future index

Today, i was built up some future contract for my friend. Morning sell at 867 points for November contract and evening sell at 874 points. Expected take profit at 830 points.

This is a dangerous game and more cruelty than equity market because it only can hold until month end.

In order to sell or buy every contract, there is require a deposit of RM5,000 per contract. A difference of every point cost RM50.00.

I wish i can help my friend earn some money.

Good Trading day

Malaysia's equity market today had disappointed a lot of people, but if you had follow me traded in the future index trading, it was given you a little profit margin. As yesterday I was mentioned at here, today I has been help my friend to earn a little money for day trade for doing a "Long" position future of KLSE's index. Bought in at 881 and take profit at 890 points. Small profit but we had succeed avoid the equity market fluctuation and unstable move.

Today is a good day for you, it you dare to buying future after 1st shift closed of spot market. However if you still holding the "long" position on future market, please take profit in the next day morning. Because tomorrow you could face the heavy adjustment. It is due to Gamuda Berhad today move was told you, that is a risk. Why?

Gamuda berhad last minute hit above the resistance of 1.84 and closed at 1.85. If you based on normal circumstances, it shall be provided a good up move. But, the others high volume counters did not follow the step, especially MRCB and Scomi still traded at below the previous high of 89.5cents and 48cents respectively. That is a dangerous signal and indirect warns you, market hard to touch new high level. i.e. above 915 points

From this data, I am classify it and understand it, there is a weak move of coming few days for KLSE's index. So, long position of index does not provide you a comfortable level to enjoy benefit. Furthermore, current global economic situation still weak plus lack of confident of investors. Any bad news would heavily impact the equity market plunge again.

Due to the above, I am suggest here is, tomorrow investors should start build up you short position on future index and take profit from equity share immediately or cut lose to avoid the maximum losses happen in the coming days.

Good Luck!!!!

"Circuit City Bankrupt at USA"

This news from USA, a retail electrical shop has been file bankruptcy note at High Court. This news hit the DJ closed at negative on Monday. It was brought this morning whole Asia Pacific Shares market plunge.

Malaysia equity market also follow the down move step, in between there is a good move for KLSE's penny stock registered positive but finally seller won at last hour. The 2nd shift price and index registered lower than 1st shift. It totally spoilt the index could achieved higher than recently record of 915 points.

After study the today trend, I am note that although market was closed at negative but the up trend based/ground still haven't destroy yet by today adjustment. So, I am classify the impact from selling force on today mainly due to lack of confident in the future.

The recent economic data all shown negative plus surrounding rumous bring you more fears. On the same time, daily bad news are appearing in front of you become realistic, seems like it could also happen on you in the next coming day. Hence, a little bit bad news easy hit down the up trend.

I am still positive view on the equity market for this week performance, but the profit will minimise when compared with last week. But careful on the traded volume per day, if it has reduce substantially, please cut lose and run.

No stock recommended and advise to "select those stock standing at the middle on the volume page may help to minimise the risk".

However, I would prefer quit from equity market today in the morning and buy in KLSE index future at status of " Long". Good luck!!!!!

Good move on KLSE

As per predicted as Saturday. MRCB and SCOMI given a good profit on today. But I am still highly recommend this 2 stocks for short term play.

But, in order to enjoy your maximum profit, please take profit at index point touch 935. I believed this up move was disappointed a lot of investors who could not bought at 800 points. But equity market is always bring such surprised and disappointed together. If you still continue sitting there to understand it, the golden opportunity will go soon.

By the way, please do not apply one factor to understand the market up or down. Market move up or down depend on various factor. If you the move up or down is long period, maily due to all good or bad factors have been join up together in one period of time.

Due to that, I predict this move will end up about one week time. Please careful to select the share which can give you easy to realise the profit or minimise your risk.

Cruelty Game

Shares Investment is a cruelty games. Without any signal or alert can eliminate you assets by single minute or single hour. But, if you know that tactic to manipulate it, you are enjoying. After read today newspaper, I found some analyst said coming week still do not have any surprise.

But playing a cruelty game in this world, you must dare to play and accept some risk. Next week, I am preferring to challenge the game or negative trend.

However, please do not expect the lower interest can give more incentive to share market. The instrument already outdate especially the fundamental has been hit by Tsunami.

Hit and run is a best strategy in the coming week. By high volume with marginal profit to enjoy these cruelty game in the world.

Another Good Day

This morning at 11am received a new assignment again. Ask to buy in MRCB and Scomi again. After i study the trend on KLSE index. I am agree to accept this assignment but only start buying at 3pm.

The target price for MRCB is 96 cents and scomi is 50 cents at next week before due day. KLSE index move today due to Wednesday jump up open at 915 points, there is a gap between 905 and 915 points. It was still not cover yet.

But this morning open low at 880 points, there is also a gap at 880 to 895 but evening sucessful covered up.

Next week is a good time for KLSE cover back the gap at 905 points to 915 points. Based on this move, there is a good opportunity to earn some money. MRCB to day break the first resistance level, it was 79 cents and closed at 82.5 cents.

My prediction MRCB still can further move until 98 cents but in order to enjoy the profit. Will take profit at 96 cents.

Hope you are good luck at Monday!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What are you doing?

Some time when you are study the activities done by EPF and Pemodalan Nasional Berhad. It would able to know the market short term activities.

In malaysia, most of the big company related to government. Hence, although global face a bear run in equity market but KLSE seems like not follow the step.

EPF in month of November always very active and this month is a last month for every financial year ended for PMB. PMB always perform better than other unit trust. Refer the record, the performance always is above the average and continues well performance about 30 years. Although in this 30 years, we had face 3 adjustment, that is year 1987, 1998 and 2002.

Based on the above, what should you do? Actually is a good time for you adjust you portfolio to face the bear run. Please grap this golden opportunity.

My prediction is wrong ?

Actually, my prediction on today KLSE move is "wrong or accurate" is not so important. Investors should care on his own investment which could be gave/brought him more gain, instead of spend more effort/ focus on other people view.

I am appreciated it they could spend such golden time to visit me and further give me some advice. I only wish my article did not block/spoilt you intelligent brain after you're read my little wild point of view from my blog. I am really in doubt and wondering. If they are a famous/good analyst,Why so particular on my wild opinion?

I am not "Najib" or "Warrent Buffet", my little opinion definite can not influent, instruct or manipulate on the daily trend of equity market. Honestly, i do not have any super magic.

However , every one holds a difference way of approaching on his own investment. Like yesterday, a guy name GUEST purposely point out my prediction is wrong/nonsense Subsequently brought any blogger name KHOO88 join in protect me and help me fired back MR Guest.

In fact, I really do not wants to care about it. Because, the most important was, today i has been help my friend realised the profit. Every time, while I wrote a note at here about an activities in the investment. I am strictly follow and honor it.

I am greedy. So, argument by way of keep on criticize some one does not give me earn any income. So, normally i will refuse to do it. Usually i will prefer stay away and watching the show. Ha ha

For these incident, cause me remember during and after Lehman Brothers' case. That period I had never involved any investment planning, because I always believed while 2 elephant start fighting, small rat like me should stand far away from them.

Until last Wednesday, I had only started a new investment. By the way, these assignment is over at today 5pm and after that I was received my hard earn fees. Now, I would be do the same action like August 08. Became as a rat again and hide inside my home "sleep again".

Wait ! Wait again! Wait again!

Up Rally is almost over

Malaysia market seems like strong in today trading. But my indicator was informed me, the market will come down in the next day.

The market will support at 865 points. If you are a short term player, please take profit immediately to avoid the adjustment.

A lot of people blame never bought at 800 points. And felt lost these golden opportunity. Be patient, maybe you got another in the coming month.

FBM100 - Winning Tips

My friend had wrote me a short sms to post a tips for him. But i was refused to do that. Because after reading a CNBC news in the Monday morning, US dollar against with other major currency is lower except Japanese Yen.

That is not my mistake. Just now he was send me a SMS again and blamed me. Never update his blog.

Friendly speaking, this morning he gave MRCB at 65cents buy in and LionDiv 39 cents buy in. But I were really busy on my job in this morning.

However, my point of view/prediction, USA will close negative at next morning. It also would bring no support at Malaysia equity market continue up trend in the next morning. haha !!!

I wish I am correct!!!!

Market Upset People

While market starting run downward, a lot of investors pretend not to view it. While market further down, people gave an excuse to avoid it.

While market deeply downward, people seeking for advise. While market started bear run, people try to save other necessary expenses.

If your are above type of people, you life may always suffer. As a good investors, knowing life follow by enjoy life is a basic requirement of one human.

Investment is one of the game in you life. Face it and overcome it. You life will give you a more beautiful colour on your every step.

Sick Day and Rally day

Friday morning wake up but entire body pain. Equity market on Thursday perform a good move and also bring some people's confident back on investment.

This morning while I read the newspaper and also noted that some analyst has been comment positive for movement on next week.

Is it like me sickness is over? Investment is a long journey of road, one or two days won did not classified you are better. So, every step and next plans will be more important than what you had won in the past two days.

Please ask youself! Is it a right time for you to step in?

No guidance to buy is a good tips

If you had bought in equity at yesterday and also select correctly. Today early morning should have some profit. My advice is just take profit and quit again from market. Because: -

a) PBBank & PBBank-01 seems like not stable.
b) Digi still under sell force.
c) Tenaga maintain at this 6.00 level.

If wants to see Market index will further up, subject to above scenario will be eliminated in the afternoon. Otherwise, market will challenge 800 points again.

Strategy or Method

If you ask me which method I has been used to do my investment on equity? Usually, my answer is “My strategy does not suitable for you.”

Everyone in this world has had own character and difference behaviour. If you force some one apply a same method, the ultimate result would also difference. Hence, looking for suitable method to match you own character usually can bring you meet the target instead of copying people method brought you mislead and uncertain.

My character is greedy and aggressive plus aim for fast return. Thus, every transaction applying is “Buy in by volume with take profit in short period” method. So, although I finally succeed bought in some lower price on certain stock. I could not enjoy the maximum yield on this stock. Why? Because, if this particular shares move on higher about 3 to 5%, I will realise the profit immediately. I do not care about future forecast and future price although one day this particular equity may contribute me double or 3 times of return. I do not have such patient and tolerance on that.
Therefore, if you had hold above character and no confidant on the specific counter could move up in the few days time. Usually I would advise you stay away. Otherwise, if yours prediction was wrong, the coming adjustment would make you face uncountable big losses.

Hence, this kind of person does not care about the bottom price for individual equity. They also do not interested on lower index level when would arrive. In market, they are always searching a counter which can be within the settlement day giving him a maximum profit. They are also do not bother the good or bad shares, as far as the particular share can bring him a good return. No specific guide, no specific counter is their priority. They are sudden appearing in anywhere, which the delicious food was ready. But, always worry about the trap is waiting at nearest corner.

To capture and manipulate this strategy, the basic requirement skill is "Fast Decision." This is a dangerous/high risk way to approach the investment of equity.

Are you interested? Are you well prepare to facing this challenge? Are you same character as me?

Would Crisis or Dilemma created a New Professional Skill in the rural?

This few days some many economists suddenly appear in environment. Similar like after 8 March 2008, there is a group of politician sat beside you to judge our current policy of government. Are there really is professional of economist or politician? I don’t know. But seems like they can point out the false plus could guide you a right direction.

Today, I receive a note claimed that we should do this or apply that on our country financial policy. They further guide me; USA or Hong Kong or Japan government should adopt this or manipulate that in to their country. Do you wants to trust this type of professional to build up you investment portfolio or re-planning you life style?

Honestly, when you refer this professional’s investment portfolio or his saving. I think you wants feel faint down on the floor. Like me, just can zipped up my mouth and sat beside them and listen.

Actually, your are not necessary listen so many comments, because if you trust you own estimation on projected index points. You should take own step to make necessary adjustment on you own portfolio.

Let us ignore the above, because the important is what will happen in the coming few days. After reading the data on Asia Pacific equities market and yesterday US DJ index performance. My feeling fears had increased time to time.

One way, just stay away. If you want to know my friend’s point of view, just click on FBM100.

Hong Kong index crashed down

Hong Kong Stocks Plunge the Most Since 1989 Crackdown. The 42 member of Hang Seng index all down. Hong Kong authority pump in $1billion into market also can stop the blood bleeding.

The Hang Seng Index today plunged 1,602.54, or 12.7 percent, to 11,015.84, the biggest decline since Oct. 28, 1997. It tumbled as much as 15.4 percent in the afternoon session, which would have been the largest drop since 4 June 1989, when the Chinese government used military force to clear pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing.

The above brought Asia pacific market already infected by USA Financial Crisis. When is the last day of adjustment? Who Knows???

Asia Market today tumbled again

Japan drop 6.36%, HK drop 4 - 5%, China drop 5%. Seems like the data in share market indicated the economic in the coming year very bad.

In order to survive, next year budget must minimise to necessary instead of expanding. Malaysia
market closed due to Deepavali holiday. So, there is a bad news for tomorrow market opening.

Stay Out!! Stay Out

EdmundTTS

A guy with a bad attitude. No body interesting deal with him. Furthermore, this guy scary to leave a link for people visit him. Maybe he is scary people also write some bad comment in his blog.

In the blog world, everybody had his own way to liaise with people. But as a gentleman, he should knowing how to earn people respect. But, refer his message at chat box, you will feel disappointed.

Look at his message in the chat box, you may feel disappointed. He just only leave a "WTF" in people blog.

Do you wanna to know this GUY? By right, i should leave his homepage at here for blogger. But, after consider deeply, I think no body is interested on that. So, just forget about it.

Supporting Price for KLSE Index Member

My friend asked me to open a blog for him. Because he wants to highlight KLSE index counter 's reasonable price to investors.

That is not a free viewing blog and not open it for public. So, if you are interested please registered at my chat box.
He was gave me a first counter reasonable price. That is IOICorp. Please click KLSE.

I personally does not against my friend point of view. That is offer and acceptance deal. Everyone would not happy the above deal, just ignore it.

However, I found that a lot of investors like to lost money easily on his/her investment by few thousand, but buying a chicken rice cost expensive RM0.20 also fire the hawker. The worst is ,they keep on taking a cheap things to maintain his normal life.

While my friend telling me the above situation. I personally feel that since they can lost hard money money to anyone in the market. It is making sense for him to collect the reasonable cost for extra service.

Everybody in this world hope for free lunch, because they think other people should given them free support and make them become rich. That kind of attitude just brought him/her blindly lost money with no sense.

Fact is, if you pay nothing to go somewhere, you must use you own leg to reach the destination. If you willing to pay transport fees, of course they is a driver willing to help you.

Of course, the supporting price determined by my friend must obtain my advice before post it at there, because the said blog will manage by me.

Bear Run

When the Bear run (down turn) started in equity market. What is the common question would ask by people? Let me tell you, They will keep asking about the bottom price for blue chip. (Good share).

In Malaysia FBM30 index build up by 30 selected companies. Some Fund manager of unit trust based on this guide to set a portfolio to launch the specific trust fund for investors. Thus, if the selected company could not maintain perform as previous. It could be removed by authority as well as also indirect instruct specific fund manager sell off from specific investment portfolio.

Therefore, as a common investor if you also follow the FBM30 to build up personal investment portfolio. You must be frequently updating the latest information to adjust the investment.
Every time the changing of position/member in FBM30, the specific counter of share would face a heavy transaction. It is also affect the share price run in way of uncertainty.

Hence, to identify the bottom price or lower price of member of FBM30 become important and become necessary. Because if you buying at higher price on specific counter and one day the said counter have been removed by authority, it will bring you facing a big capital loss.

Due to the above, you did noted in my previous 2 months article wrote at here. Keep reminding to everyone AND ASK everyone staying away from equity market. This is because I was in the position of lack of data in hand to identify every counter/company performance after this financial crisis from USA.

Honestly, I am here to inform everyone. Some of the best company in previous report and now still recommend by others people actually has been degrade by me to no value or not worth to invest in the coming five years.

So, no bottom price had set for every counter yet. Maybe you could claim that I had predicted the adjustment would be continues in the equity market in this period of time. But this is a “FACT” and you are correctly predicted my intention/mind.

Still waiting ! Still waiting !

Waits

Today KLSE equities market plunge again about 20 point and support at 880 point. What we should do?

Some investors had make a prediction market will touch 700 points but still buying at this level.
Some investors selling at 930 points and buying at 900 points but remain the forecast as low as 800 points.
Some investors said that at 1300 points been sold the stocks, now should start buy back.
Some investors keep on asking what is the support price for every counter but refuse you comment.
Some investors said government should not allow market plunge so heavily, it will affected the economic fundamental. Based on this, we should start buying stock now.

Are you is one of the above mentioned investors? Actually, any type of people does not important because the fact is no one can really affect the actual market trend.

Fears, worries and power of market force will tell you the true. When is the end of adjustment? What’s the support level? No one would know in advance.

What I suppose do?
I am still waiting. I am just waiting. I am still stay away.

Be Stupid or Be Wiser

Last few days in my article, had pointed out own opinion about the comments on radio as well as article on local newspaper. Honestly, I am hate to made such comment into public. But, I am really felt disappointed on those people without certain specific knowledge but classified themselves as professional. Furthermore, encouraging by certain group of people putting into public.

My little wild opinion definitely could not help Malaysia population enjoy any benefit. But, the fact and history of every matter should allow/provide/inform ordinary people aware it and try to understand it.

The impact from the Financial Crisis was started from USA, assume that it will slowly landing into our nation. To prevent, to minimise or to avoid is a main duty of everyone. If those publication still trying to manipulate the emotion of reader. Subsequently, everyone will more suffer on it.

Some time the fact also ugly and brings unbelievable. But, as a responsible people, the advise and analytical report must be able matched with realistic data and information.

I noted that still a lot of people likes to showing their skill and wiser to another. Like: -
a) Complaint the Bank Negara never cut interest rate.
b) Complaint government never put in extra funds to rescue KLSE, or

Made super forecast on KLSE index will touch 700 points and also predict specific counter good for long term investment, but he had: -

1) Buying at index link counter at this level
2) Selling specific counter at this price.

If you are trying to obtain some data/opinions from them in order to support the above said comment. They would tell you: -
“Someone tell me that it will be happen!”
“ I saw my friend buying in now!”
“He is got plenty of money in bank!”
“Government should invest 20 billion into share market”
“ 5 billion not enough!”
“He already make a lot of money from this adjustment!”
“ Cut interest rate is a good idea and it must immediate do it now!”
“ Government not allows plantation price broke this level!”
“ Government very slow reaction!”

The above stupid activity/rumours everyday would happen in the equity market. Do you want to be one of them?

The conflict of comment brings you confuse. Hence, now you should understand, be a good investor priority is keeps away from those people.

Always remember, wants to “Be Stupid” or “Be Wiser” is optional by your own decision.

5 Billion

Yesterday, our government was announced reserve 5 billion for ValueCap Company to assist KLSE maintain shares price for those valuable company. The announcement does not specific the term and conditions, and also did not said which company has been dedicated. But it would bring more in doubt to the equity market because the said ValueCap Company has been established since 2003. But, as at today everybody noted there is no specific report or annual report for this company.

As a population or Malaysian Citizen, we are not surprise because this is our government’s style. No information, no data, no report and at last all are cover under the carpet.

The above news did not bring me had any disappointed because this is not the first time. My frustration was derived from one Article/Forum written by one local Chinese media. In the page 2, the Article header is “ 5 billion is enough or not enough”

Firs at all, I disagree and hate the article header and the paragraph number 3, 5 and second last of the said article. Why?
That is because: -
a) As everyone noted, the previous 5 billion has been injected that is no anyone of taxpayer aware how is operated. The header indirectly encouraging our government injected more resources into said company.
b) In the paragraph 3, misleading local Finance Institution applied same management and risk control as USA and never consider the said funds only indirect help those riches man maintain their assess.
c) In the paragraph 5, complaint the 5 billion too little, but forgotten ordinary people does not gain anything from such policy. Is it he was tried to tell government should take up 700 billion to buy over the KLSE listed stock at current price?
d) Wishes government provide more rescues plan instead of encourage people hard working to maintain/face recession on economic. We do welcome all rescue plans, but it should not only hope for the said fund applying on certain group of people.

If there is not enough, I am here given another suggestion to the said writer. Why not asking government use all the resources of Malaysia buy over the KLSE listed stock at market price of 1,500 point and maintain the high level at least 3 year? I think, that will bring more effective and reasonable.

“ Is that enough or not enough?” or “Is that bring the writer any happiness?”

My illustration on the above is not trying to against the write/anyone. But, just thinking that if everyone wants to be a responsible people, we should be able highlighted the valuable points to ordinary people to understand every system adopted by government. It shouldn’t bring more dispute/misleading issue to harm ordinary people. In my wild opinion, enough or not enough problem should not be highlighted in the public. The most important is: -

“Effectiveness on such scheme/policy.”
“Final result could bring how many ordinary people direct/indirect enjoying benefit on such call system.”

Old man Strategy

A retired old man, name Master Fu. He is full of knowledge on share investment. In year 1997, he was lost entire assets in hand. After the crisis, in the past 9 years he was managed earn back all losses. Especially in year 2007, the gain contributed by his investment has been double up.

He always trusted in the middle of crisis, there is a good opportunity for him to establish the investment portfolio. The previous fantastic profit record guide him this strategy is effective.

He was started build up the portfolio in the beginning of this year. Until today, refer on his investment portfolio. The said portfolio accumulated paper loss about RM100, 000, represented 50% on his total investment. Based on previous experience, He is still believed that one day the portfolio should contribute him a good return and was decided would not do any adjustment on his investment portfolio.

I believed in this equity market, a lot of people had hold the same strategy same with Master Fu. Are they would enjoy the gain after 3 or 5 years holding the same portfolio? I really in doubt!

As investors, firstly we should always unambiguous agreed that economic changing would based on environment change. Like an example, Investment Bank in the past 10 years contributed the high yield return to shareholder. But today, the concept of investment bank has been eliminated by current financial crisis.

Thus, investment portfolio must compulsory attached with current economic fundamental to minimise the risk instead of blindly follow the history record and data.

At last, let me make some assumption on the above said investment portfolio. My prediction is: -

a) 50% shares no gain no lose but receive yearly dividend average about 5%.
b) 30% shares still lose but also receive yearly dividend.
c) 20% shares has been eliminated by this heavy adjustment, book value is “NIL”.
If above prediction is correct, after three years the said portfolio would remain negative return.

Silent !!!

Sometime while you are continue repeat the same things, you would felt bored. I believed whoever following reading my blog in the past 2 months. Noted that i am just recommended selling. It seems like a old man repeat the word to youngest.

But this is a fact and realistic trend of equity market. How can I simply adopting personal wish and opinion to mislead people lose money? In my mind, I would said during this period, I am totally ignore my wish and hope.

MY WISH IS MARKET UP AND GIVEN ME A CHANCE TO BUY IN AT EQUITY MARKET.
MY HOPE IS MARKET CAN GIVE ME A NOTE, IT WILL BE UP TREND MOVE.

But, disappointed and frustration keep up delivered to me. Now, i wants to against my wish and hope again. KLSE market move up after DJ index closed at positive point. After reading the data showing on screen, I am here recommend sell future on KLCI and Oil Palm again.

Because: -

a) Oil palm anytime may hit below RM1,500/MT
b) Genting and Resort shares seems like face a heavy pressure on current price
c) Bursa share price could not stood above 5.75 per share.

If the 3 scenario does not change after 1st session, please sell future in the afternoon. This round can provide u at least 30 to 50 points profit margin.

Finally I can not SILENT and standing here blar blar again!!!!!!

USA'S GDP And KLSE"s Plantation Stock/Sector

Is it USD700 billion bailout plan proposed by US’s government would only represented 5% on GDP of USA? I think most of the people have been mislead. I am really in doubt the above said calculation, because as I aware before this crisis, USA ‘s annual GDP is about 13 trillion, but it was included the contribution of Financial Services in the country.

Assuming every year, Financial Sector was contributed about 20 % of the total GDP in USA. Now, the said GDP should be adjusted about 2.6 trillion to 10.4 trillion. So, the said bailout was represented 6.7% on yearly GDP. But this calculation also needed assumption on others sector remains contributed same effort to GDP as previous year. Otherwise, the calculation would not be sustained as well. Everybody noted USA would face recession in the coming year and it will brings the GDP make adjustment accordingly. This is a issue will bring another the above siad GDP more uncertainty and impact of the accuracy calculation.

After illustration the above example, I hope everybody would understand why in this period I were continue advice stay away or out from equity market.

Just imagine, if one day Palm Oil future hit below RM1, 200/MT. What is the reasonable price of SIME Darby, KLK or IOI? Is it such counter’s current price on KLSE can be sustained?

So, if you have such data in hand, please calculate accordingly before start buying the above said counter. I do not want to highlight my estimate figure at here, because my figure brings you unbelievable.

Warning!

Every one must caution, Based on the first session of KLSE performance. If today market close at 16 points down. Tomorrow market wil face another heavy adjustment.

there are 2 reasons: -
a) Predict USA tonight may heavy adjustment again.
b) IOI and Sime Darby may face selling force

Due to the above, please stay away!!!!!

Today and Yesterday

Yesterday, Dow Jone up about 936 points. The history up record brings surprised. But, if your are been share market long time and well know about this game rule. You should not be surprised.

Before Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, DJ index was about 10,360 to 10,700 points. After that, the index has fall down all the way until was touched as low as 7,900 on last Friday.

As a normal trader, should understand the market would be technical rebound at anytime. Usually this rebound would take few days, but yesterday Dow Jone only took a trading day been recovered. Is it the recovery will long sustain or turn it to stable.

At this circumstance and you are a fundamental trader, I believe you are still staying away. Because you do not have any supporting data in hand to encourage you to build up you investment portfolio.

Today throughout out the radio, one of the DJ asked people about the PM statement. Actually, I hate hearing that kind of discussion. Why?

I am always believed every topic want to discuss at public media. The organiser should provide some data for referring. I am wondering why all people commented PM being tell lies to population of Malaysia. Are they got any supporting data in hand? Are they well knows about economic? Are they is a Financial Analyst? Are they a shareholder in the public company?

I do respect everybody owned a right of comment. But if the said people just expressed out personal interest and idea to the public. That is totally meaningless plus misleading. It may indirect convince people loss confident on certain fact. If PM’s statement actually consist of 50% realistic data, Do they would compensate any lose to anybody been listen and trusted the comment?

I am feel sad after listening such comment because while everyone suffering the impact of heavy adjustment on equity market. No one could provide us a meaning full data to guide us. Some more has such irresponsible people misleading us.

Bottom Level!

Today, I think most of the people would like to predicting or estimating bottom level of KLSE index points. Is it these bottom level would help you to improve you quality of life? Is that would help you enjoying life in the next 20 or 30 years? Is it the right prediction will giving any prizes? Is it the bottom level causing you more happiness?

I am here daring to do any conclusion. Because in my own opinion, all the answer is “NO” or “NOT IMPORTANT”. Why? If the bottom level as per requested were happen or arrived, that economic situation in the country will turn worst. If you prediction is correct, I believed currently your should busy on rescue yourself and worry about your saving is safe or unsafe. So, Is that bottom level granted you any good credit on such 100% accuracy prediction?

Stupid people always worry about other thing. Smart and intelligent people already start planning to adjust his in hand wealth and assets to reduce the risk on such impact of recession instead of wasting time on stupid prediction.

Example like, Tsunami was happen in others place, your are 100% accurate estimated the number of people was died. Is it such accuracy prediction will help you ignore or escape from this dilemma?

So, If you feel not comfortable. Please take immediate action to rectify or adjust your existing business, in order to prevent it to meet such bad impact. The necessary step became more relevant, realistic and important. Don’t dream, Don’t use imagination, Don’t 100% believe public rumours. Don’t waste time on doing such unnecessary prediction.

Skills

A lot of my friend wondering why every time before the crisis would happen I could escaped it in advance. They are suspicious me owned a miracle crystal ball. Honestly, I do not own any specific equipment to assist me. The most of the data for me to analyst was derived from CNBC News, BLOOMBERG News, Local media news and other people comment.

After hearing, reading and receiving such information, I was tried my way to understand it and analyst it before any conclusion. Of course, I have a strong personal knowledge to assist me easier to understand it.

On such skills, while you are made some special statement would against the people wish. You will face a lot people criticising on you and pissed off by people. Such feeling is not easy to absorb it, because you hold a difference opinion to against people wish and hope. You may feel lonely and helpless.

In order to trust in hand data, you also must treated the data in hand is you friend. Like everyday, the data price and volume done in front of you monitor screen. It comprising day high, day low, top ten volume, top low volume, total volume, top ten higher gain and tope ten lose.

Everyday, I am watching the data and trying to understand it. I treat every transaction was done is a word speaking to me and I would trying hard to understand it, What their trying to inform me?
After concluded the said data, I would use such data matching the entire economic environment.

People always use their own assumption to interpret market trend. But, my assumption will support by certain realistic data. Hence, my assumption does not far away from facts. That is not a super skill but require you must have certain strong knowledge to assist to capture the right and meaningful data.

So, I have had skill but the skill derived from hard working to study realistic data in hand.

Gambling?

Do you wants treat investment shares like gambling? Recently a lot of rich people claims that this crisis gives them a chance increase the wealth in hand. Because they holding a lot of cash in hand. “The strategy is:- On every heavy adjustment just buy in and hoping for tomorrow market could technical rebound.” I am not objection on these strategy. But I think the chances of making profit have 50% only. Why?

Because: -
a) In order suitable using the cash in hand select any good stock, that is not an easy task.
b) If this rich man previously is an investor, the holding stock’s in hand current registered price mostly has been adjusted more than 50%. If this purchase help him earn 100% returned, that just enough to help him recover his previous lost.
c) If he is a new bird in share market, I believed he has 30% chances to select right counter to gain some profit. The balance of 70% purchase may contributed him lose.
d) If he already start buying on every adjustment. As at today, I could assumed his current holding stock in hand do not given him any good returned.
e) If he trying the day trade strategy, I believed he must testing 10 round only can gain one times

Is it currently you are applying the above strategy on equity investment? If the answer is “Yes” and already contributed you a lot of money. I believed you could be nominated as a “super hero”.

In year 1997 I have adopted the same strategy. In that period this strategy had teaching me a good lesson and finally I was gain nothing plus lost all my assets in one day.
I do agree if you selection is correct, the yield can contribute you 50% to 100% return. It is almost like you buy/pick a lucky number at magnum 4D game, it also can given you 2,500 times return. If you attitude on share investment is similar like above mentioned. Honestly, I am advice you quickly quit from this market because one day you may experience the same “bad fruits” as me being tasted in year 1997.

A fear and A tear

Yesterday a lot of investors while checking out the Australia's government cut rate, CNBC early news displayed Dow Jone Future Index positive and Euro market open positive. They already trying buy some valuable stock to hope can enjoy the technical reboung.

As I am always said before, please do not try earn the minumum income by way of "you thought". Equity market is cannot be use you own imagination to buying or selling.

Actually the fear already spread in to all level of population at USA. In global market concept applied it since 5 years ago. No one in the earth can escape from the impact of economic happen in one of the another country.

The DJ plunge down 500 points again on yesterday, today your tear will follow you fear again but this is not end yet. In order to reduce you continue fear on everyday. Why not stay away from equity market a while?

What is the right time to buy in shares at Equity market?

In fact, nobody would know the support at which level. But these few days, I found that in the coffee shop and cyber chatting room, a lot of super analyst already given you some guide. Like, it would be supported at 960 or can slump down to 800 points. But in the beginning of this year, I remember was told by them, KLSE index hardly and impossible slumped down below 1,200 points.

So, I am here to advise if you are lucky to meet this type of analyst. Please trying your best immediately forget their prediction on KLSE index point. Because they are obviously and purposely bring you to wrong way of investment strategy.

As a responsible analyst, they should proof to you the supporting economic data for his estimated level. But in fact now, nobody could tell you what is the real condition in the global economic. The fundamental of economic has been destroyed by this 2 weeks heavy adjustment on commodity market as well as equity market. Everybody’s effort in this three or four years had burned in the air.

Is it really can’t define the lowest of index? For me, I have some idea maybe can help us or share with your are to identify the lowest: -

a) Refer to two coming quarter results for top 5 listed company for every sector. If turnover and profit adjusted more than 80% to 100%, the lowest is far to meet yet.
b) Refer to other country’s equity market, which they also export the same item to international market.
c) Ask yourself “ Would your fear to buying in at now or not?” If the answer is “No”. There is not the bottom yet.
d) While your received a message from one person who never playing shares in his life, nervously warn you “Do not buy share!” In this period, I can say that the equity market almost reaching the lowest.

The above is based on my own experience to define the future equity market trend. It would not a 100% accurate prediction but at least helping you minimise your risk on investment.

Apply Equity Investment strategy to understand you Lover

At present, if you are an investor. You should able to know this game is a tough game. In order to understand the basic of equity investment. You should had widen and well knowledge to build up your investment portfolio. Its consists of various strategy you should required and also required you had well knowledge on your normal life. These complex games attract a lot of people attention on it and also indirectly bring some common people involving although they hate this game. Why?

Recently, everybody know USA happen a Financial Crisis, the results of crisis hit the Wall Street giant company like AIG and Lehman Brothers fall into take over bid and bankruptcy respectively. Finally, USA FED compulsory implemented a Bailout proposal to restructure the fundamental of the Financial Institution’s assets base. It was incurred about USD700 billion from taxpayer money. Hence, as I mentioned above. Although you are personally not involving into equity market but government force you join into the party. Furthermore, if you are compulsory contributing certain percentage on you retirement funds. The said funds may also invest certain percentage into equity market. The above is the evident proof that you are being is the equity investor long time ago.
So, now I believed everybody would agree that equity investment is a high-class game. Can bring you step into trouble without your were informed.

Apart of the above, equity investment also is a good instrument to allow you to understand more on your lover’s real character. Like: -
a) If he/she had lose on equity investment. Although that is not you idea, but he/she is blaming on your never advice him/her in advance. It was indicated he/she is an irresponsible type of people
b) If he/she would like to blame you never assist him/her monitor the said investment. Means that he/she not eligible be a good leader.
c) If he/she listen outsource news to buying the investment, its mean that he/she does not have personal ideal plans for his/her future.
d) If he/she was lose on equity investment, but refuse to admit it. This indicated he/she very stubborn and always need people give priority attention on him/her.
That above prescribes on human being character just for you to understand more but will not 100% correct applying onto everybody. That is just suitable to apply it as an alert to remind you! Maybe, yours’ future partner is this type of human being.

Equity Display Screen

When any big adjustment into equity market, our local media would had a photo highlighted the people standing in front of big display screen to show their happiness or frustration. It made a lot of newbie (new bird) in doubt. Why be an investor must go equity firm to monitor the price? Hence, the newbie always worries if they spend the time to monitor the price, it may brings them lost a lot of enjoying time in their life.
The above query has mislead them do not simply involve any equity investment.

I do agree playing any game if never involve closely, it would not gave your good return. But honestly, I was being an investor so many years. Nor and neither sat in front of said display screen in the whole day. My experience was told me, if you spend a day to monitor your own investment, you will lose the direction. Because you would treat yourself can give some supporting on the said equity, if you stand it closely. But in fact, there is “Not”.

Your are not even know who is the equity market buyers and sellers display on the screen. How would you can easily assumed that or determined that, they are supporting or against the said prise. Therefore, those investors was standing in front of the display screen just only will mislead by own emotion. They would make some assumption, they would make some dreams, and they also would make some imagination. Will you want to follows them made such stupid reaction?

I am believed the youngest now love to play online cyber game. They can spend a day to meet the objective/target. But, I could say that 99% of them would not happy in the end of the game. Why?

Actually, the both games ultimate results were same. Everyone also aiming to be a winner but eventually the loser percentage always is higher.
I am not a good player in the online game. But, sometime I will spend one or two hour to release some tension of my life. Hence, be a good and smart investor, avoiding sit in front of display screen could bring you feel calm and steady. Just doing some record on your “bought share” daily moment like: - Highest/ lower price and volume done for analyst purpose. Use this data to match with the economic fundamental and overall markets moving trend. It would give you a good surprise.