Bye bye 2008

In this year 2008, equity market really made a disappointed result to everyone. But this is a good lesson to holder.

Like: -
1) Company can bankruptcy although they had survived more than 100 years.
2) Equity market shares drop more than 80% although is a famous company in the world.
3) Government use the new debt rescue the luxury and branded company although they been nearest to bankrupt.

The new things/policies will continue in year 2009. But, when is a last day of bottom touch. I believed this is a biggest cruel game in year 2009.

Anyhow, wish you are have a "Happy and Healthy New Year"

1.2 million

Our country can maintain the GDP because of: -
a) Government maintain employed about 1.2 million labour
b) GLC company still maintain the existing labour
c) Retirement labour from government contributed about 6.5 billion per annum.

The biggest contribution of government department’s servant to the internal demand could be maintained the GDP as positive level. If per labour earn RM1, 000 per month, the total salary per month pay to government servant are amounting to RM1.2 billion and one year about RM14.4 billion. It did not include the benefits like, medical, accommodations, allowances and retirement benefit. This necessary expenditure highly supported our internal demand at certain level. Hence, current economic crisis in the world seems like never landing our country.

The high ratio of employment rate on government servant in the Asia day by day eating our nation wealth and resources. Subsequently, increased of nation budget to maintain such cost by way of borrow. Our generation would not suffer short of resources but the next generation could bear all the resposible and debts in the coming 50 years.

I wish some intelligent people can give some good idea to solve the above matter and provide a better vision and future to next generation of Malaysian.

Shares - 你怎么舍得我难过

Buying shares like this song (你怎么舍得我难过). We are holding you day by day, month by month. But, you are planning to di-listing. Some how we are spend all our saving to buy you but you brings a disappointing to us.

"最爱你的人是我
你怎么舍得我难过
在我最需要你的时候
没有说一句话就走"

"You are our beloved,
Why you dare to allow us sad,
While the time I really need you,
You just go away plus never leave a single word for us"

Quite day

Today when you are sat in front of the trading room, You may feel bore. The funds manager monitoring the portfolio at certain range. They still hoping the shares closed higher at year ended could brought them in year 2009 better.

The economic fundamental totally spoilt it in 3 months ago. So, technical player will only enjoy this game in the coming next 5 months.

So, keep watching the movement of day trading will brings you more stressful. Take a good trip to enjoy life is much more important than day trading.

Rest is good strategy

KLSE remains 2 trading days in 2008. So, any buying does not help you and me gain anything. Fund manger busy on restructure their portfolio.

This is a bad year for every fund manager, No bonus or maybe already received a letter to stop employment.

Most of the Asia pacific countries' people still realise this bad things, but it will coming soon. However, life is going on. Please do not give up.

Bad News at USA

One of the Fund Manager found commits suicide because of invest into Bernie Madoff's funds. He lost about US$1.4 billion. The CNBC news: -

"The founder of an investment fund that lost $1.4 billion with Bernard Madoff was discovered dead Tuesday after committing suicide at his Madison Avenue office, marking a grim turn in a scandal that has left investors around the world in financial ruin.
Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet was found sitting at his desk at about 8 a.m. with both wrists slashed, New York Police Department spokesman Paul Browne said. A box cutter was found on the floor along with a bottle of sleeping pills.
De la Villehuchet, 65, was pronounced dead at 8 a.m. local time at a Madison Avenue building in midtown Manhattan, New York City Medical Examiner spokeswoman Ellen Borakove said. He was co-founder of money manager Access International. "
Results of an autopsy are not expected to be available until late Wednesday morning. No suicide note was found.

I Am Correct

As per yesterday projected, the KLSE index performance badly in today. The volume of traded reduce substantially plus top volume counter tried hit the support level again. Hence, after analyst the performance of KLSE in past few days, I am here suggest the support level will stand at 854 points and year end closing should stand at around 864 points.

This is not so bad for this 3 months (Oct 08 to Dec 08) when compared with others country’s equity market. It was never broke the 800 points again and successful given the “800 points’” buyer some gain. So, I am here identified the “800 points” is strong support level for KLSE. This is a good guidance to those Technical Analyst player. In my own opinion, if broke the above said strong support level. KLSE equity market would be adjusted another 20% lower from 800. This is a bad news and hope that will not be happen in year 2009.

Of course, this year is a bad year for fundamental player. But I am not worry, because this category player always proud to say that their investment portfolio is plan for 3 years or 5 years.

At last, if you had taken profit on today. TA player (technical analyst player) should consider “Quit trading in coming 10 days.”

Good Trader should aware opportunity always is there as well as you are “Ready”. Stay away from these game a while because you need to relax you stressful mind. I am not encourage a player involving into these game day by day, because we do not own a power to forecast 100% accuracy on every buying or selling.

The up rally is over

KLSE index today morning had hit higher and touched 887 points in the morning shift but the profit taking activities prevented it and at last closed at 874. In my opinion, KLSE index will not hit higher than 887 point for year end. Because of: -

a) Palm oil price and crude oil price would be adjusted heavily in this coming days.
b) MRCB and Gamuda resistance price stand at 76 cents and RM1.91 respectively.
c) The heavy adjustment will be happen again in the Euro country and Hong Kong equity market.

The above factors going to join up together soon. This is bad news and bad effect to the entire world market. Hence, I am here to suggest take profit at equity market immediately and sell “Short” again in the Future market.

The Rally Run Remain

Yesterday, market hit low due to oversea performance weak. But it did not affected the base of the up trend.

IOICorp closed at above 3.54 and AASIA hit higher closed. I am still preferring buy in for short term investment but caution on watching the IOICORP movement in the coming few days.

KLSE still enjoying the up move because of :-

a) Lower interest imposed by Japan, HK and USA
b) Higher exchange rate against USD

But, it would not stood at higher than 890 points because crude oil and palm oil price registered lower. This 2 commodities demand continue bad indirectly bring its offer price hit the history low. Hence KLSE index will not perform better than what we expect.

A good Rally (KLSE)

KLSE equity market today performance very well. In this morning, I had recommended to my friend bought in IOIcorp-CJ and Aasia for short term investment.

I am believe tomorrow market will give you another surprise although it may affected by external market is bad, especially IOIcorp and AASia will continue given you a small gain.

Ramunia also closed at better level at 35.5 cents, if tomorow it break 37.5 cents. The resistance level for this counter is 42.5 cents.

Overall market index will move at 860 points to 895 points. If you wants to play future index, please take this as you guide. But always remember, lose money do not blame me at here.

Fatique

Every one will feel fatique while he had faced: -

a) Spend more earn less
b) Investment more gain lose.
c) Work more paid less.

In the investment of shares game, people would applied various theory to understand it but finally found that lose direction. Especially most of the equity you had bought declared profit decline as well as reduce payment of dividend.

But I am 100% respect our local fund which is managed by PNB, although market is bad, they still managed to pay higher dividend. Malaysia Government should transfer those manager to manage our GLC company. But I never see anyone get promote to such company. Very funny and interesting ????

Why KWSP did not employed PNB funds manager to help ordinary people to earn extra? Is it a funny and interesting question????

What i am understand is KWSP could paid higher salary better than private sector plus eligible pay more than 6 months bonus to employee. Why they cannot employed such high skill fund manager from PNB? Why???

A lot of questions brings me feel "Fatique".

Internet Connection Problem

I think a lot of people wondering how come this few days never update my blog. In my area there, the telekom streamyx had problem on connection.

Tell you are a joke, initially i thought is my modem or ethernet card problem. So, advise by Telekom purchase a new equipment but finally they said is their problem. They wasted 3 days then only allowed me report faulty. This is so called efficiency for GLC company at Malaysia.

On the same time, the media highlighted that TMI going to privatised the company. That is impossible deal, they had faced the problem on debts and cash liquitity only listed TMI. Now i believed that is only certain securities use own imigination to talk about this proposal. Why?

Maybe they had advise some powerful people accumulating this shares during the listed day and also maybe this shares hit to RM5.00, they have been recommended to someone.

I do not know my prediction is correct or not but the media wrote such article/report has indirectly given a wrong direction to public investors. At last, i just wanna to said "That is impossible deal".

They are not eligible to receive Any Salary

Lehman Brothers CEO, AIG CEO and 3 auto mobile CEO, they should not eligible any salary from now. Not even USD 1.00. By right, the whole family of them should provide a free employment to the above company at least 5 generation in their family.

As an ordinary people or employee, the yearly income is about USD50k. So, when the above said CEO enjoying the high income in year 2006 & 2007. It could be paid per person above USD50 million yearly. Hence, they had received the money more than 50 year extra times than one ordinary employee. But they have been brought the company faced the bankruptcy as well as asked for the bailout from taxpayer's money.

In order to penalised them, their entire family should provide free service to the above company. My opinion is, every bailout plan should provide a clause to enforce EX-CEO be a free pay employment in the specific company. Otherwise, they are still enjoying the good benefit, if the bailout plan finally suceed rescue the company.

Do you agree my proposal?

Ha Ha

Small Up Rally is over

After analyst the Hong Kong index, I was found that the small rally on this period is over. As per my own indicator, after Hang Seng index broke 13,200. It can be touched 15,800 represented about 2,600 points or almost 20% rally. It was confirmed that on yesterday transaction on Hong Kong market. The entire Asia Pacific equity market follows their step and also registered a small up run in the last few days.

KLSE also follow the step of Hong Kong market at Wednesday and Thursday in this week. Of course, it was brought some shares provided small or litter margin for day trader. In this month, Technical analyst player gain the advantages on short period of trading but it would not attracted any long-term investor step into market to create a strong base at equity market. Hence, the overall performance of equity market still remain is weak.

So, as an investors please remember:-

“Quite does not means the economic recession is over. Up move in certain period of time would not mean that the bear was gone.”

Time is Money

"Sometime you feel regret because you was forgot to capture a good opportunity to step in the game in advance."

"Sometime you feel regret because you are playing in the game but forgot to interview a new job."

Same as above in you circular of life, you would faced a lot of uncertainty and unfortunately. As well as in the equity market, you are always searching a lower price to buy and higher price to sell. Every minute the transaction is going on, if you missed it. You would regret forever.

Let me give a example if you are investing in Malaysia equity market may occurred you lose the golden opportunity in investment.

A foreign investors come in to Malaysia to invest, he need to apply approval from Bank Negara. Same as if he wants to go out Malaysia, also need a approval. Hence, if Malaysia equity market had a PE ratio same as others development country, It would not bring any advantages.Because development country adopted a policy for equity market with "no currency control "and "better financial servicing."

A good trader or investors prefer a free float currency market to manipulate the funds to enjoy the high yield. Every second or every minute for them is important. They had to well know this theory in their dictionary ie " Time is Money".

If Malaysia equity market wants to attract more investor, we need some changes in our policy, otherwise although the PE ratio is same as others, investors may prefer other market in advance.

ICELAND Market Plunge

At Tuesday ICELAND time 16.40, the equity market of ICELAND recorded plunge about 40.17%, and it represented down about 265.17 points and closed at 394.88. This is terrible history and shock result.

But seem like others EURO development country (DAX CAC and FTSE) did not affected and still maintain steady. But market plunge at one country's equity market situated at Euro had given a bad signal and confirmed that economic base at Euro has been totally destroyed.

So, I am hereby classify this rally at Euro country will be ended soon. The rebound is bear run rebound, could not stand more than 5 to 10 days. Another plunge will be coming again in the entire world equity market.

Bad Day for Genting group

Resort hit the 2 years low at RM2.14 closed. Genting also going to test its lower price of RM3.58 again. A lot of people in doubt what is happening on this group?

In fact, if apply the PE ratio, most of the Blue chip at KLSE are expensive if we compared with others regional market's equity share. Furthermore, our country financial services not that good. Because every outflow and inflow strictly control by our bank negara. So, if both market had a same PE or fundamental value, Foreign investors will not consider invest at here. Because, "time is money".

Hong Kong break the 15,000 points at yesterday because of China forex side effects. Because the saving looking some way to parking their funds in order to maintain the better yield to against the inflation rate.

So, KLSE step in to dangerous level at this week if Genting berhad break the strong support at 3.58. This is a good guidance and alert to holders of blue chip. Please be careful and take the necessary step to minimise you lose on you stock in hand.

DJ up 299

Yesterday, the entire world equity market surged about 3% to 9%. DJ up due to obama plans. Asia market due to: -

1) Lower interest
2) Oil and energy price slump

Equity market already up 4 days, seem the financial crisis already searching the base to landing. But economic fears will be continue in coming next three month.

Malaysia does not gain from that, because oil palm and crude oil price affected our National Revenue income. So, there is not any big jump on our market in these week.

Good opening at Asia Pacific

Hong Kong and Japan recorded a positive opening at today due to bailout of 3 big motor corporation gone through at USA at about USD16 billion.

The rescue plan accepted by leader but still waiting the lawmaker to approve it. The reply positive by Asia Pacific's equity market highlighted confident on US government policy.

Would it be follow by Malaysia KLSE?

DJ up 259

Although USA rose the unemployed rate to above 7% but it does not hit down DJ index. The fundamental player lose the basic of trading in this period of time. The technical player (TA) won this round.

Equity market comprising a lot of difference type of player, especially like those country has policy with open system. Hong Kong, Tokyo, UK and USA all applying this policy on their financial system. Hence, you are also could see if any major changes on the trend of economic, they are always leading advance when compared with others.

Please do not mislead by DJ index move up in the last three day trading, because it does not show any good or major changes on fundamental economic as well as the black hole of financial problem still maintain in the market.

Another Bad Day

Today, TMI price done in the range of 3.04 to 3.20. On that day, based on my own calculation, it should be hit below 3.00 but it successfully support.

So, is it TMI would be continues hit lower in the coming next day? My answer is “Yes”. Today, after analyst the overall movement of KLSE, I was noted another KLSE index counter Genting Berhad also soon be challenge the strong support price at 3.58.

The individual counter break the strong support does not bring any bad impact to overall performance, but if few counter of index member did the same move and broke the strong support. It is seems like market index going to search the new lower support.

If Genting, Sime , TM and TMI all in the coming days break the support. I am here to predict again, KLSE index will hit lower than 800 points soon.

Bad news at KLSE

Today at 4.15pm, TMI Berhad one of the member from Composite Index of KLSE broke belowRM3.54. This support level already stood about 2months, recently although KLSE have been touched 800 points but TMI did not hit below RM3.54. So, I usually take these as strong support level. Unfortunately, today it had broke this level and I am make a assumption it would be brought the followings effect: -

a) Hit another 20% low from RM3.54 in the next few days.
b) No new support level can define.

TMI represented about 3.16% ratio on KLSE index, so for every 1 cents low would bring index drop about 0.0962. If heavy adjustment on this counter, It will be brings another panic selling to hit other index members.

Based on the above, I am here highly recommend doing a “Short” position at KLSE future for DEC 08 and Jan 09.

Retail Bank, Investment Bank and Bursa

In my blog, you are seldom see I am recommend these 3 category of stocks. Because I really had owned a very bad experience in their services as well as their stupid policy.

Khoo88, please forgive me, I am here indirectly criticised your employer.

Today, these three type finance sectors giving me another stupid experience.

First incident is, "Our company had submit the changed of signatories in past 5 months ago. Today I was found that until now, they still haven't update. When you are make a phone call to confirmed, Investment bank said they have been submitted, but Bursa's officer denied had receive such instruction to amend it accordingly.

This is very funny. Finally, as a client I must be a middlerman to guide them what to do. Investment bank collect brokerage from us and bursa collect clearing fees from us. Why we should do they job? Furthermore I am always listen someone telling Bursa had a efficiency and capable staff , so they always award to staff about 6 to 12 months bonus annually. In addition, When you are reading the Bursa report, the capital expenditure cost million plus million. But finally you are aware they are not doing any online updating with investment bank in the country.

Let us make some assumption at here, if one day some one do a transfer because of court order. But because of above two party never do the necessary job, and due to this delay cause/created the difference price range on investment, Who shall hold the responsible?

2nd incident, Bank set stupid policy to stop people buying thier services.

A bank stop people buy oversea bank draft by cash. Why? if you are planning to help you friend at oversea to lend him some money by way of purchase a bank draft form bank and sent it to your friend at oversea. Please ask you friend fly back immediately signing the application form in advance, otherwise bank will reject the application because this is thier bank policy. Alternatively they may also request you must prove that you frined passport in front of them. Why I am said that?

Today, a company need to fulfil a payment to singapore authority and it cost less than 100 . Because the problem on floating currency rate, if employee follow the normal procedure. Directors must standby in front at bank to do it. Due to that, employee plans to use individual name and petty cash to purcahse a bank draft because it only cost less than 100 dollar. It would help company directors can concentrate to do thier big business or attend an important meeting.

But these stupid Bank was insisted that signature of directors compulsory in the application form. The employee use personally money and own initiative helping employer to settle the problem immediately but finally still need to obtain the boss approval. It is similar like a doctor wants to rescue an accident patient on the roadside but must go back to hospital searching a approval from Director General of hospital. If you are one of them, do you think it's logic procedure?

After you have read the above, you must be thinking I am cheated you are, but this is my own exprience and was happen that on today.

So, do you wants me recommended the above counter to you. My answer is "NO".

Because in my investment principle, "if one corporation had owned a lot of good assets and holding a good business activities but with a culture like stupid management theory or with stupid policy inside the corporation"
I would not and never advise any one of my frined holding such company's share.

Staff Cost

Do you know how to calculate a cost per employee?

Today, in the employment market people aim have high pay salary to maintain the life style. During the good economic environment time, people requirement easy to fulfil. If economic going on adverse, these basic requirement would brings bad effect. Finally, the unemployment cases increased and a lot of news about retrenchment.

Why every corporation takes retrenchment staff is the main agenda in the restructuring plan? Because,

“If a staff receive pay is 1,000 per month and bank interest rate is at 3%p.a. Its assume that the staff opportunity cost is about 330,000 per month.”

Base on the above, if company employed 30 employee at averaging salary per month of 1,000 per person, it was indirectly required about placement of Fixed deposit of 9,9 million to earn the interest income to support the 30 employees' monthly salary.

Of course, during at good economic period of time. The 9.9 million capital could help corporate earn a lot of money from business activities. But in the recession time, no business and just paying staff cost is burden. Hence, Company always considers the staff cost is main agenda to approach it in their restructuring plan.

Bad Monday

Black Monday because of "Black Friday". In USA, last week last Friday on November named as " Black Friday".

This is a opening day of shopping for celebrating of Christmas day. All shopping centre or outlet's turnover depend on this season.

But, after the day USA and Malaysia market present a bloody data to hit people again. No much to say at here. Stay out immediately to watch the down or slump show again.

Telergy

A lot of people wish own telergy skill and use it to connect with something. This skill could help individual had an advantage to understand the future stuff in advance. That is not magic, maybe can classify it as "six sense".

I as an ordinary human, dream to have this skill on my investment strategy and hope that can help me earn some extra income. But, actually just a dream only. In fact, in Equity Market 's history these person did not appear yet.

Some time a people/person use in hand data telling public about the future economic fundamental. it does not means his own a telergy skill to liase with equity market. So, if any one said he was owned a telergy skill, please be careful.

Today, future market provide a good earning to "short" player. Because the Sime Darby shares price plunge about 13 to 15%. It had indirectly made spot market move down substantially.

I am projected the down move will be continue at tomorrow.

Always remember, telergy or six sense do not suitable apply at equity market.