Saturday, May 10, 2008

Is it China be an economic giant in the world?

In my opinion, USA and Euro still a leader in the coming 20 years, the main reason is because western people always created some new thing to meet the people needs in coming future. Hence, the new thing/product and new idea bring new economic base changing rapidly. In this decade, mostly contributed by Japan, USA and Euro country. The creative thinking leads the whole world follows the step. Especially when you refer to product like Internet services and mobile phone. I think you are surprise and unbelievable. So, based on present technical skill and social environment in the western country, this century unambiguous USA and Euro still playing an important role in the economic environment.Due to the above, I 100% disagree people who commented that China and India are giant of economic and a superstar in the coming century.To be a giant, China still has a long way to go. The reasons are: -
a) China product must produce a bulk only can exchange a good from EURO, USA or Japan. Example: - LV & Toyota product can sell above USD$10,000 per unit. But China has to sell a lorry of products only can breakeven the cost of one unit of LV bag or Toyota. There is not efficiency and effective economic has been applied.
b) China has an internal problem, if continuos their people enjoy the luxury thing and more demand on free thinking. The communise system may easily eliminated. So, foresee the big changes required before stepping into develop country. Is it the existing government allowable this changes become true?
c) Hong Kong and Macao become a burden to China. Because when the Shanghai and Beijing has own a status like them, it may immediately spoilt the status of these 2 countries. At present, China depend the Hong Kong bring the good relationship with others and Macao provide the way for people spending money and enjoying the life. If others country has a direct dealing with China and ignore Hong Kong and Macao. The good economic environment’s base and relationship spoilt, it may bring economic crisis in the Hong Kong and Macao.
d) China owns a high country reserve but if equivalent with the number of population, there is helpless. Furthermore if the financial crisis happen in China. Is it the high reserve is a good defences weapon or not also depend by authority how to manipulate it? It can be a burden because the big reserve funds make your decision confuse and over confident to view the actual situation.
e) GDP 8% or higher trade surplus does not reflect the actual situation because earning per person still below the level. So, how many years or times of 8% must achieve again and how long the 8% can maintain and continue. If one day the GDP registered lower and trade deficit registered, what is the consequences? One strong and established economic entity usually may face few critical challenges in their history only become matured and steady. Hence, I concluded that China and India still have a long way to go to become an economic giant in the world.
f) The whole world retail eyeing on China because there is a biggest cake in the world. It does not means that you population may enjoy the food. Because the rapid economic environment mislead you spending money on luxury thing and unequally distribution of assets and resources in the faster way to another group of people. No one will warn them because wolf will not inform the victim by a word “I already target on you.” Economic is distribution of assets and resources game. Positive economic data is shown that you are playing the faster distribution of resources game and Negative economic data is shown that you do not have any resources for distribution. Like Africa, the economic data is negative does not means they do not have any good resources and also Iraq registered a negative economic due to war now does not means that oil and gas does not export from them.
g) Easy maintain the high turnover by McDonald, Coca-Cola and KFC in the China. These bring a misleading data for local business identified the cost of effectiveness. Is it China brand product already sharing the major proportion of market sales in the country or world?
h) The law and financial system must update accordingly to meet the economic base changes. Did China has do it and prepare to do it? This very important to assist the local people to maintain their effort from the economic growth, otherwise everything as a dream. If starting from now the changes, how far and how long China required doing it?
i) China demanding the resources and material like hungry wolf. But providing the resources and material country one-day may felt that it is unfair because the price increased in their own country. Recently, oil and gas price increase brought the whole world country must suffer together with China. Did other country owe the obligation to feed the population in the China and others must suffer with them? This is not necessary and objection may voice finally become obstacle to China continue improved better.
Of course base on my minor opinion as above does not stop China one-day maybe achieve as an economic giant in the world. In my view, deeply study the culture and history of China may help them know more about current situation.
In addition, there is necessary for China care more about neighbour economic situation. It may also help china obtain better way of analysis on it rapid growing economic road. My little opinion is "if we are still continue mislead by beautiful economic data does not help anyone enjoy the biggest cake in the world."
At last, now my basic economic knowledge has been changed. It gave me the new idea like: -
"Economic is not means that everyone must have a food and clothe."
"Economic must enough cash in hand."
"Economic must has a banker, politic and authority support."
"Economic no longer equal to basic trading."
"Demand and Supply theory already spoilt by people who have a power/wealth in hand."
"Demand and Supply theory means merger and control."
"Currency rate is meaningless due to controlling the exchange system."
"Price up and down determined by economic reporters."
“Price up and down forced you to follow.”
"Interest rate like a weapon"
The history data in the financial report become a professional use it as a weapon to warn and control the free market. It brings market create an Economic King. So, can create an index table ask people to follow the step.Analysis of economic data tell you stop providing basic need to ordinary people.
Economic may also bring a number of diseases, like financial crisis, currency crisis and inflation crisis. The good show is compulsory create a "Giant economic country" for easy to attract more funds join into the party.
Finally create a new super economy theory.

Write by BK Low at 20 July 2007.

Posted by kacaubusy at 2:24 AM

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